In this issue:

• The Dellanna Diagrams: a visual tool to understand antifragility
• Short-term activists and long-term games
• Schroders interviewed me on ergodicity

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Short-term activism

(read as a blog post)

Activists vandalizing paintings and monuments are short-term players. They pick their tactics based on short-term evaluations (how much engagement they generate today) and neglect long-term considerations (how much they antagonize the population whose support they need to achieve their goals).

This is a common mistake we often make in our careers and lives. We choose what to do next based on whether it generates progress with no regard as to whether that progress leads to a dead end.

In the case of activists, engagement obtained through vandalic arts might grow their supporters today and might continue to do so tomorrow, but eventually, they will find it impossible to grow further, once they have run out of extremists to enlist and will have to begin engaging with the bulk of the population that hates vandals. Any progress obtained through short-term tactics leads to a dead end.

In the case of entrepreneurs, engagement obtained through exaggerated promises might grow their customers today and tomorrow, but eventually, they will find it impossible to grow further, after people understand they shouldn’t be trusted.

The tricky part is that short-term tactics work well in the short term. Often, they work even better than long-term tactics. However, growth obtained through short-term tactics eventually plateaus. It’s a dead end. A decoy that makes it harder to achieve your ultimate objective.

My suggestion to activists interested more in saving the planet than in scoring virtue points is to adopt some long-term thinking. The change you seek requires societal change, which you can achieve only in two ways: by being a tyrant or by being a leader that the majority of the population wants to follow. That requires creating trust, though. And the first step is to stop taking shortcuts that destroy trust.

And my suggestion to my readers is to consider what long-term assets (trust, health, relationships, etc.) you will need to achieve your long-term goals and to avoid any shortcut that consumes rather than building them.

Note: I discuss this topic further in my 2024 book, “Winning Long-Term Games: Reproducible Success Strategies to Achieve Your Life Goals,” which you can read as a book, ebook, and audiobook.

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The Dellanna Diagrams

They are a simple visual tool for understanding antifragility.

I already produced a video about them a few months ago, but I finally also posted it in the form of a blog article.

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New podcast on ergodicity

Schroders interviewed me on Ergodicity (podcast).

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Nudgestock

I will be in the audience of this year's edition of London's Behavioral Sciences Conference, where I presented in 2020.​

I believe that tickets are already sold out, but if you're there (and I know that a few readers of this mailing list will be there), come say hi.

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Quotes and tweets